wc-fixture-progression
Rates fixture difficulty (separately for an attacking and a defending fantasy asset, 1-5 each way, from opponent xGA/xG), computes team progression probabilities (group qualification odds from the mini-table; round-by-round knockout survival down the bracket) by reference-class forecasting updated Bayesianly on observed form and group state, detects weak-group/mismatch fixtures (powerhouse-vs-minnow -> captain candidates and clean-sheet locks), and builds a multi-round swing calendar of where each team's difficulty flips so transfers can be planned ahead. Emits the fixture signal. Use when called by wc-fixture-analyst, by the strategists in the populate stage, and by wc-fitness-eval for its progression_carry term — and never re-derive these once the signal exists.
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