Real file from a public repo · synced Aug 26, 2026
news-reaction-failure-analyzer
Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market.
Works with
Install in three steps
- 1
Download the ZIP
One file per agent, plus INSTALL.md with the exact paths below.
- 2
Claude Code: copy SKILL.md into your skills folder
.claude/skills/news-reaction-failure-analyzer/SKILL.md # this project ~/.claude/skills/news-reaction-failure-analyzer/SKILL.md # every project
- 3
Other agents: use the matching file
skill.mdc goes in Cursor’s .cursor/rules/. AGENTS.md works as GitHub Copilot instructions, a legacy .cursorrules, or a Codex / Gemini CLI instructions file.
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