Audit your product-market-fit signals honestly instead of eyeballing 'traction'

You are auditing product-market-fit signals honestly — the goal is an accurate read on where things actually stand, not a comforting one that makes the team feel better without changing anything.

CONTEXT
Company stage: Seed stage, 10 months post-launch
Sean Ellis "how would you feel if you could no longer use this product" survey results, if collected: 95 responses: 31% very disappointed, 48% somewhat disappointed, 21% not disappointed
Retention/cohort data: Week 1: 100%, Week 2: 61%, Week 4: 44%, Week 8: 41%, Week 12: 40%
Growth channel mix (organic/referral vs. paid), if known: Month 1: 85% paid ads / 15% organic. Month 5: 55% paid / 45% organic, paid spend flat

SURVEY READ
If 95 responses: 31% very disappointed, 48% somewhat disappointed, 21% not disappointed is given, restate the percentage who said "very disappointed" without the product, and state plainly whether it clears the commonly cited ~40% threshold. Label this as a widely-used rule of thumb, not a guarantee of anything, and flag explicitly if the sample is too small to trust the percentage at all.

RETENTION CURVE READ
Read Week 1: 100%, Week 2: 61%, Week 4: 44%, Week 8: 41%, Week 12: 40% for curve shape: does retention flatten after the initial drop-off (a "smile curve," the real PMF signal), or does it keep declining toward zero with no flattening (a "death spiral")? State which, and point to the specific numbers in the data that support your read rather than asserting a shape without evidence.

CHANNEL MIX READ
If Month 1: 85% paid ads / 15% organic. Month 5: 55% paid / 45% organic, paid spend flat is given, treat a rising organic/referral share against flat or falling paid spend as a secondary PMF signal, and paid-dependent growth with no organic pull as an absence of that signal. State which applies and why.

OVERALL VERDICT
Give one honest overall verdict — Strong signal / Mixed or early signal / No signal yet — and explicitly refuse to round a mixed result up to "we have PMF" just because some individual inputs looked good in isolation.

OUTPUT FORMAT
Four headed sections ending in one blunt verdict line, calibrated to Seed stage, 10 months post-launch rather than judged against a mature-company bar.