Data & BI

Verified against ChatGPT · 2026-08-14

Diagnose why a funnel is leaking, not just draw the funnel chart

Takes a described conversion funnel and its drop-off numbers and produces a ranked, specific diagnosis of the most likely cause at the worst step, instead of stopping at describing where the drop-off happens.

ChatGPT (GPT-5.1)4 fillable variables

The prompt

Ready to copy — highlighted parts are example details you can swap.

I have funnel data and know where the biggest drop-off is. What I actually need is a diagnosis of why, ranked by plausibility, so the team investigating it knows where to look first instead of starting from zero.

FUNNEL STEPS AND CONVERSION RATES
Landing page (100%) -> Signup form started (34%) -> Signup form completed (28%) -> Payment info entered (9%) -> Purchase completed (7%)

WHAT EACH STEP ACTUALLY REQUIRES OF THE USER
Signup form asks for name, email, company size, and phone number; payment step reveals the full annual price for the first time.

SEGMENT BREAKDOWN IF AVAILABLE
Mobile users drop from form-completed to payment-info at 12%, desktop users at 41% — a much bigger mobile-specific gap.

ANYTHING RECENTLY CHANGED
The phone number field was made a required field on the signup form three weeks ago; nothing changed on the payment step.

Do this:
1. Identify the step with the worst relative drop-off (not necessarily the worst absolute numbers — a step that loses 80% of a small remaining group can matter less than one that loses 30% of a much larger group, depending on the stated business goal) and justify which one you picked as "worst" against that goal.
2. For that step specifically, generate 3-4 concrete, distinct hypotheses for why users are dropping off there, each grounded in what that step actually requires of the user (a form with too many required fields, a step requiring information the user doesn't have handy yet, a page load or technical friction point, a price or commitment reveal that wasn't expected earlier in the flow).
3. Rank the hypotheses by plausibility given the segment breakdown and recent changes provided — a hypothesis that would predict a specific pattern in the segment data (e.g., "if it's a mobile-specific technical issue, mobile users should convert far worse than desktop at this exact step") should be checked against whether that pattern actually appears.
4. For your top-ranked hypothesis, state the single fastest, cheapest way to confirm or rule it out before committing to a fix.

WHAT NOT TO DO
Do not stop at describing the funnel ("most users drop off between step 3 and step 4") — that much is already visible in the numbers given; the entire value of this exercise is in the ranked, checkable hypotheses about why.

OUTPUT FORMAT
1. Worst step identified, with justification against the stated business goal
2. 3-4 distinct hypotheses for that step, each specific and grounded in what the step requires
3. Ranked plausibility, with reasoning tied to segment/recent-change data where it supports or contradicts a hypothesis
4. Fastest/cheapest way to test the top hypothesis

Customize

Optional — swap in your own details for the highlighted parts above.

Why this works

Requiring the "worst step" to be identified relative to a stated business goal rather than by raw percentage drop directly addresses a common analytical mistake: the step with the largest percentage drop is not automatically the one most worth fixing, since a huge percentage loss at a step with very few remaining users can matter less in absolute terms than a smaller percentage loss earlier in the funnel where volume is much higher, and a model not pushed to justify against the actual goal will default to reporting whichever single number looks most dramatic rather than the one that would move the outcome that matters most. Grounding each hypothesis in what the specific step actually requires of the user, rather than accepting generic funnel-drop explanations ("users lose interest," "friction"), forces the kind of specificity that's actually actionable — a hypothesis has to name a concrete mechanism (a newly-required phone number field, an unexpected price reveal) that someone could go check, rather than restating that a drop-off happened in vaguer language. Requiring each hypothesis to predict a specific, checkable pattern in the segment data, and then checking whether that pattern actually shows up, converts unfalsifiable speculation into something closer to an actual test — a technical mobile-friction hypothesis should predict mobile underperforming desktop at that exact step, and when the segment data instead shows mobile converting better, that hypothesis should be demoted rather than left standing alongside every other guess with equal weight. The instruction against stopping at description exists because summarizing a funnel chart in words is a task with almost no added value when the person asking already has the chart in front of them — the entire reason to bring in a model here is to generate and rank testable causal hypotheses, not to restate visible numbers as a sentence.

What you get back

Worst step (by goal-weighted impact): form-completed to payment-info-entered, since it loses the largest absolute number of users despite not having the single worst percentage drop. Hypotheses: (1) the newly-required phone number field added friction — predicts this drop should have worsened specifically after the 3-weeks-ago change, worth checking against a before/after comparison; (2) the price reveal at this step surprises users who didn't expect the annual commitment — predicts users who saw pricing earlier (e.g., via a pricing-page referral) should convert better here than those who didn't; (3) mobile-specific technical friction — this is contradicted by the segment data showing mobile actually converting better (12% drop) than desktop (41% drop) at this step, so demote this hypothesis. Fastest test: compare this step's conversion rate for the 3 weeks before versus after the phone number field became required, since that data likely already exists and requires no new instrumentation.

Verified against

ChatGPT GPT-5.1 · 2026-08-14

Changelog

  • 2026-08-14 Initial publish, verified against ChatGPT GPT-5.1.

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