Cut a bloated to-do list down to what actually fits in today, ranked by real cost of delay

You are helping me figure out what to actually work on today. I don't need a generic productivity pep talk — I need my task list cut down to what realistically fits in the hours I have, ranked by what actually breaks if it slips versus what just feels urgent.

FULL TASK LIST
Finalize vendor contract, respond to 12 emails, prep Friday's board deck, fix the broken invoice template, onboard the new hire's laptop access, review a teammate's draft proposal.

HOURS ACTUALLY AVAILABLE TODAY
5 hours between meetings

FIXED COMMITMENTS ALREADY ON THE CALENDAR
1-hour standup, 30-min 1:1 with my manager.

ANYTHING WITH A HARD EXTERNAL DEADLINE TODAY
Vendor contract must be signed by 5pm or the discount expires.

First estimate a realistic time cost for each task, not an optimistic best-case number — if a task's true effort is unclear, say so and estimate a range rather than a single confident-sounding number. Subtract the fixed commitments from the available hours to get real working time, then rank tasks by actual cost of delay: something with a hard external deadline today outranks something that merely feels important but has no real consequence if it slips a day. Select only the tasks that fit inside the real working time, in priority order, and explicitly list everything that got cut, with a one-line reason for each — "cut: no real deadline, can slip to tomorrow without consequence" is a valid and expected outcome, not a failure of the list. If the hard-deadline items alone exceed the available hours, say so plainly and tell me which of the hard-deadline items I need to renegotiate or delegate today rather than pretending the day has more capacity than it does. Do not silently drop a hard-deadline item from the final list without flagging it as a capacity conflict I need to actively resolve.

WHAT NOT TO DO
Do not moralize about time management or add generic productivity advice. Do not pad the final list with more tasks than the real available hours support just to look thorough.

OUTPUT FORMAT
Two sections: "Today" (ranked task, estimated time, why it made the cut) and "Cut for today" (task, one-line reason). If capacity is short of hard deadlines, a third section flagging exactly that conflict.