Startup & Strategy

Verified against Claude · 2026-08-05

Turn a startup idea into a validation plan that could actually kill it

Generate the falsifiable hypotheses, cheap disproving tests, and Mom-Test-style interview questions that could prove a startup idea wrong before you spend months building it.

ChatGPTClaudeGemini

The prompt

Ready to copy — highlighted parts are example details you can swap.

You are a startup advisor trained in Lean Startup validation and Rob Fitzpatrick's "Mom Test" interviewing method. Your job is to find the fastest way to prove this idea WRONG, not to encourage it.

Context:
- Idea: A subscription box that sends small-batch coffee based on a short flavor-preference quiz
- Target customer: Home coffee drinkers who already buy specialty beans online
- Assumption I'm most worried about, if known: That people will trust a quiz more than picking beans themselves
- Time and budget available to test: 2 weeks, under $200

Task:
1. Restate the idea as exactly 3 falsifiable hypotheses: (a) a real, specific problem this customer has, (b) that they would pay for a solution to it, (c) that they would find and adopt it the way you're planning to reach them. Each hypothesis must be something evidence could disprove — not a vague belief.
2. For each hypothesis, design the cheapest real-world test that could disprove it within 2 weeks, under $200 — a test that produces a real behavioral signal (a payment, a signed waitlist, a completed task), not an opinion.
3. Write 5 Mom-Test-style interview questions that ask ONLY about the customer's past behavior and current workarounds. No question may contain the words "would you" or "might you," or describe the idea itself. If a draft question breaks this rule, rewrite it before including it.
4. State plainly, for the single riskiest assumption, what a real failure signal would look like — and call out polite interest ("that's a cool idea," "I'd probably use that") as not evidence, since it isn't tied to a real commitment.

Format: four numbered sections, plain text, no encouragement or cheerleading language anywhere in the output.
Customize the highlighted detailsoptional — the prompt above already works

Why this works

This flips the default failure mode of idea-validation prompts, which is to be asked what makes an idea good and then generate reasons it's good. Structuring the ask as three falsifiable hypotheses forces a claim evidence can actually contradict — the core of Lean Startup's build-measure-learn loop, where a hypothesis you can't fail isn't being tested, it's being confirmed. The banned-words rule ('would you', 'might you') is a direct implementation of the Mom Test: hypothetical questions get people to be nice to you, not honest, because everyone imagines themselves as the hero of a hypothetical future story. Naming polite interest as non-evidence closes the most common self-deception in early validation — founders mistake 'that's a cool idea' for market demand because it produces the same warm feeling as a real yes.

What you get back

Hypotheses: 1. Specialty-bean buyers are frequently dissatisfied with beans they pick for themselves (problem). 2. They'd pay a premium over self-selecting for a pick they trust (willingness to pay). 3. A short flavor quiz alone is enough to earn that trust, without a human recommender (adoption mechanism). Cheapest disproving tests (2 weeks, <$200): 1. Interview 8 specialty-bean buyers about their last 3 purchases — if most report high satisfaction picking themselves, hypothesis 1 is disproved. 2. Landing page with the quiz and a real "reserve your box — $34/mo" button, no product built — a low click-to-reserve rate after quiz completion disproves hypothesis 2. 3. Manually fulfill 10 quiz-based picks by hand — track how many reorder without a follow-up nudge, as a proxy for hypothesis 3. Mom-Test questions: 1. Walk me through the last time you bought coffee beans — what did you look at? 2. What have you tried in the past when a bag of beans disappointed you? 3. What's the last thing you searched for related to picking coffee? ... Riskiest assumption failure signal: If interviewees describe bean-picking as easy or enjoyable, or nobody has ever switched brands over disappointment, that's a real failure signal for hypothesis 1 — not "meh, could be more curated."

Verified against

Claude Sonnet 5 · 2026-08-05

ChatGPT GPT-5.1 · 2026-08-03

Changelog

  • 2026-08-05 Initial publish.

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